What this is

I take one famous fund's own money moving, a deal it did, a bet it holds, a loss it took, and work out from the firm's own documents whether the story holds: SEC and Companies House filings, bond documents, court records, CFTC data. Every number carries a source you can open.

Every piece names the date and the number that would prove it wrong, so you can hold me to it.

Who writes this

I run Navnoor Bawa Research LLC. More than 330 pieces on this publication since 2025, and a daily-updated database of the trades they reconstruct.

Who reads it

About 1,900 subscribers in 89 countries, most of them in the US, the UK, Singapore and Hong Kong. I skip the background a desk already knows.

What arrives

Every piece is paid. Free subscribers get most of each piece by email, up to its ending, and the open archive. Paid subscribers get the ending: the verdict with my odds, the numbers behind it and what to watch next, dated, plus a comment thread under every paid piece that I answer.

How it is organised

Every piece sits in one of nine sections. Each section has its own page and its own email switch, so a subscriber can keep the beats that matter to their desk and mute the rest.

Fund Teardowns — one named fund or trading firm, from its own 13F, ADV or court record.

Strategy Playbooks — how a strategy makes money across funds.

Options & Volatility — gamma, vol surfaces, dispersion, tail hedges and the desks that trade them.

Macro & Commodities — rates, Treasuries, FX, sovereign debt, oil, gas, metals and power.

Credit & Event-Driven — corporate credit, distressed situations, mergers and activism.

Market Structure — exchanges, clearing, market making, the rulebook and the enforcement cases.

Quant Methods — models, estimation and backtests, with the assumptions that break.

Prediction Markets — Polymarket, Kalshi and event contracts.

Industry & Careers — fees, capital, launches, pod economics and career paths.