What this is
I take one mechanism a fund actually trades and work out whether it holds. The raw material is what funds have to file: 13Fs, SEC and CFTC records, court documents, prime-brokerage data. Recent pieces worked out HRT’s $8B revenue model, the $1.85T Treasury basis trade running at 18:1 leverage, and a Goldman event-driven strategy that ran 49% gross and netted -9.6% after transaction costs.
Every number carries a source you can open. Every piece names what would prove it wrong, dated and checkable on public data.
Who writes this
I run Navnoor Bawa Research LLC and write commissioned market analysis for FX Empire. 586 breakdowns published since January 2025, plus a daily-updated database of 1,152 trades across 43 funds.
Who reads it
About 1,800 subscribers in 84 countries, over half of them in the US, UK, Singapore and Hong Kong. I skip the background a desk already knows.
What arrives
Four paid pieces a week, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday at 19:00 IST, each ending with the position: entry, levels, sizing and what takes it off. Two free pieces a week, Wednesday and Sunday, and the open archive of 200-plus fund teardowns and mechanism playbooks. Paid subscribers get everything, including the notes specific enough that they only make sense to people who can act on them.
How it is organised
Every piece sits in one of nine sections. Each section has its own page and its own email switch, so a subscriber can keep the beats that matter to their desk and mute the rest.
Fund Teardowns — one named fund or trading firm, from its own 13F, ADV or court record.
Strategy Playbooks — how a strategy makes money across funds.
Options & Volatility — gamma, vol surfaces, dispersion, tail hedges and the desks that trade them.
Macro & Commodities — rates, Treasuries, FX, sovereign debt, oil, gas, metals and power.
Credit & Event-Driven — corporate credit, distressed situations, mergers and activism.
Market Structure — exchanges, clearing, market making, the rulebook and the enforcement cases.
Quant Methods — models, estimation and backtests, with the assumptions that break.
Prediction Markets — Polymarket, Kalshi and event contracts.
Industry & Careers — fees, capital, launches, pod economics and career paths.
