MSCI modeled a $310 million passive bid for Adani Energy Solutions. The 31 August closing auction needed $569 million to clear, and the stock fell 10.4% and stayed there.
Below the paid line:
GQG’s own quarterly and SAST filings, read side by side against each other. What they can and cannot prove about who actually sold in the auction print
Nuvama’s passive demand build reconstructed for all four MSCI adds, and what it implies about the size of money that was supposed to show up
the auction’s own capacity math, worked from the $4.1bn figure and BNP Paribas’s disclosed share of it
the fragility ratio worked two ways, session total against modeled bid and identified print against modeled bid, and whether either is now the going rate
why Adani Group’s own post-Hindenburg volatility record, running since January 2023, can’t settle whether CAS or the stock’s concentration explains the size of the move
I make that 1.84 times, on the number that actually reconciles. $569m changed hands in the session against a modeled bid of $310m. The session alone was nearly twice the size of the entire passive order the trade was built to absorb, before counting who specifically sold into it.
Below the paid line: GQG’s two filings, reconciled line by line, and the 1.84x fragility ratio for the next MSCI rebalance.
