Moderna and Merck Disclosed No Data. The Stock Moved 177% Anyway.

The most crowded short in the S&P 500 met a binary catalyst with zero efficacy data, and two mechanical amplifiers, not the trial, explain most of the 177%.

I want to open with the number most of Wednesday’s coverage buried. Moderna fell more than 25% on Thursday, giving back over $18 billion of the new market value it had gained a day earlier, a decline that runs closer to 40% measured against the whole dollar gain instead of the closing price alone. That’s the number that matters. A stock that reprices on durable new information doesn’t usually do that. A stock that got squeezed does, once the forced buying behind the overshoot runs out of sellers left to force.